Topic: Hurricanes and Typhoons

[Astronuc]

GOES-EAST - Western Atlantic

Irene in Western Atlantic near US off Cape Hatteras, NC.

Tropical depression forming 1100 mi (1770 km) east of Lesser Antilles - white mass bottom right of picture.

See - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml - for more satellite images.

[Astronuc]

South Florida Under Hurricane Watch
Tropical Storm Katrina Forms as It Passes Over Bahamas

MIAMI (Aug. 24) - Tropical Storm Katrina formed Wednesday morning in the Bahamas and could strengthen to a hurricane before hitting Florida later this week, the National Hurricane Center said.

A 150-mile stretch of coast from Vero Beach to Florida City was under a hurricane watch, meaning hurricane conditions were possible by early Friday. The storm is expected to slowly cross the state and could dump a foot of rain or more in spots before heading into the Gulf of Mexico.

Eric Blake, a hurricane center meteorologist, said people in the watch area should consider putting up hurricane shutters, particularly in coastal and exposed areas. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet topped by battering waves is expected. He said all residents should stock up on hurricanes supplies such as water, batteries and generator fuel.

At 11 a.m., the season's 11th named storm had top sustained winds of 40 mph and could reach the hurricane threshold of 74 mph before hitting land. It was centered about 80 miles east-southeast of Nassau and about 230 miles east-southeast of Miami, and was moving north-northwest at 8 mph.

[Astronuc]

On Aug. 23, a weak Tropical Storm Jose hit Mexico.

Interestingly, the tropical systems seem more numerous, but weaker.

Katrina is headed to Florida, but still a tropical storm.


WTNT32 KNHC 251435
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...KATRINA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TOWARD SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM... EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA.
 
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR  6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD
BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 33 MPH.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.
 
DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

[Astronuc]

Florida Now Bracing for Hurricane Katrina
Storm Strengthens as It Moves Toward Coast

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (Aug. 25) - Katrina became a hurricane Thursday, dumping steady rains, kicking up the surf and blowing gusty winds ashore as it crept toward an overnight landfall on Florida's densely populated southeast coast.

Katrina's maximum sustained wind speeds increased from 50 to 75 mph on Thursday, making it a weak Category 1 storm, said hurricane specialist Lixion Avila of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Category 1 storms have top sustained winds of 74 to 95 mph, and wind damage to secured structures is usually minimal.

7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS... 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.
 
AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH.
 
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
 
LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO  80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.
 
DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

[Astronuc]

NOAA Outlook for 2005 Hurricane Season -  This doesn't bode well for the folks in Florida, the Gulf of Mexico and the US Atlantic Coast.

NOAA is calling for a 95% to 100% chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). This forecast reflects NOAA’s highest confidence of an above-normal hurricane season since their outlooks began in August 1998.

The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3). The likely range of the ACE index for the season as a whole is 180%-270% of the median.

2. Expected Climate Conditions – Active multi-decadal signal, above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, exceptionally favorable wind and air pressure patterns

Beginning with 1995 all of the Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal, with the exception of two El Niño years (1997 and 2002). This contrasts sharply with the generally below-normal activity observed during the previous 25-year period 1970-1994 (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Science). Time series of key atmospheric wind parameters and Atlantic SSTs highlight the dramatic differences between these above-normal and below-normal periods. Conditions were also very conducive for above-normal hurricane seasons during the 1950s and 1960s, as seen by comparing Atlantic SSTs and seasonal ACE values.

The regional atmospheric circulation features and oceanic conditions causing these very long-period fluctuations in hurricane activity are linked to the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal (Bell and Chelliah 2005, Journal of Climate). This multi-decadal signal has been very conducive to above-normal hurricane seasons since 1995, and is the main contributing factor to the above-normal 2005 activity.

The favorable conditions predicted by NOAA in their outlook issued May 16th are now in place. These conditions are expected to persist through the peak August-October months of the season. They include 1) lower surface air pressure and exceptionally warm SSTs across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, 2) an amplified subtropical ridge at upper levels across the central and eastern North Atlantic, 3) reduced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, which results from an expanded area of easterly winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker easterly trade winds in the lower atmosphere, and 4) a configuration of the African easterly jet (wavy light blue arrow) that favors hurricane development from tropical disturbances moving westward from the African coast.

[Astronuc]

KATRINA is continued under its own thread.

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It looks like a couple of systems are forming in the Atlantic already.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 29 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  50.5 WEST OR ABOUT 745
MILES...1200 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
 
THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
16 MPH ...26 KM/HR.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...IN A FEW
SQUALLS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N... 50.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

And another system seems to be developing near the Cape Verde Islands

[Astronuc]

Hurricane History - from NOAA

Higher resolution image - http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/severeweather/hur5005.jpg





[attachment deleted by admin]

[Astronuc]

Tropical Storm Maria - is way out to sea and expect to veer north toward the North Atlantic and not be a threat to the US Atlantic Coast at this time.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2005

...MARIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...NO THREAT TO LAND...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  54.8 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES
...1225 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
 
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MARIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

[Astronuc]

A larger view of the North Atlantic and Eastern US/Canada

[Astronuc]

Hurricane Maria - Category 2 - Sep 5, 2005

HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005

...MARIA WITH 105 MPH WINDS...THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  56.7 WEST OR ABOUT  475 MILES...
765 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA.
 
MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005

...FIFTEENTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 350
MILES... 565 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

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Hopefully Maria will stay out to see - but watch if it should veer NW.

Keep an eye on TD 15.

[Astronuc]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING MERRITT
ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA THE ABACOS...AND BIMINI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  78.6 WEST VERY NEAR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
BEGIN LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
DEPRESSION.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
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HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2005

...MARIA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST OR ABOUT 545
MILES... 875 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR  7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

Still moving out to sea - North Atlantic - and the wind speed is decreasing in colder waters.
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TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...NATE A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING LITTLE...
...INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  66.7 WEST OR ABOUT  275
MILES... 440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
 
NATE IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  60 MPH... 95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES ...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

Watch this one.

[Astronuc]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Threatens Florida
Maria and Nate Remain in the Atlantic
By JILL BARTON, AP

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (Sept. 7) - Florida's Atlantic coast braced for the arrival of a tropical storm, two weeks after Hurricane Katrina first hit the state.

Tropical Storm Ophelia threatened to dump up heavy rains, prompting tropical storm warnings along a 100-mile stretch from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler Beach. Up to 5 inches were expected over the next few days from central Florida to southeastern Georgia, with some isolated areas possibly getting 8 inches.

Ophelia and Hurricane Nate -

[Astronuc]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
80 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
 
OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THENORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

[Astronuc]

Tropical Storm Ophelia sits off Florida coast and may strengthen before coming ashore!

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Ophelia strengthened as it sat off Florida's Atlantic Coast on Thursday but stymied attempts to predict its eventual destination.

Ophelia had top winds of 60 mph (95 kph), up from 50 mph (80 kph) a day earlier, and could grow into a weak hurricane, with winds of at least 74 mph (118 kph), the     National Hurricane Center said.

At 8 a.m. (1200 GMT), Ophelia's center was about 70 miles east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Forecasters said Ophelia could dump 1 to 5 inches of rain on parts of central and north Florida and southeast Georgia, and trigger dangerous rip tides all along the southeastern coast of the United States.

The air currents that steer tropical storms were so weak that forecasting models diverged widely on Ophelia's most likely track.

Most predict it will inch northward for two days, turn east and then circle back to the west toward the United States. Some had predicted it would cut across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico, raining more misery on the area hit by Hurricane Katrina, but now suggested it could hit coastal Georgia and move inland. Others had it farther out to sea, looping around in the open ocean.
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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHEILA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.  RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS
HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
 
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.
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HURRICANE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...NATE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  63.2 WEST OR ABOUT  135 MILES...
215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
 
NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NATE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH NATE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA.

[Astronuc]

Hurricane Ophelia - near Florida.

HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
 
...OPHELIA CONTINUES MEANDERING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
 
OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO  80 MILES...130 KM.
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF  990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
 
OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.