Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: the first comprehensive health checkup for the planet - http://www.ias.unu.edu/research/details.cfm/articleID/549

How does the world learn that there is a hole in the ozone layer, or that the global climate is gradually warming? And how have we discovered that these problems are linked to skin cancer, or are in part responsible for the destruction of precious forests, agricultural crops, and marine life? Who determined that global warming could be triggering catastrophes such as hurricanes, heat waves, and other extreme climatic events?

It may not be the Holy Grail, but scientists have discovered these environmental problems, and their impacts on human life and health. In the face of naysayers and skeptics, scientists have also tried to convince politicians to do something about these problems before it’s too late. They are dedicated to understanding the ways that the world works, and to spreading that knowledge so that intelligent, informed decisions can be taken.

Last week in Kuala Lumpur, such a dedicated group of scientists met to pursue a new and important cause. This group of some of the world’s foremost scientists have donated their time and energy for the last three years to undertaking global assessment of the world’s ecosystems. Through the work of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, their task is to understand whether the planet and its inhabitants are on a collision course with disaster.

This may seem like an overly dramatic characterisation of the planet’s current health, but it is not something that the world can afford to miscalculate. It is surprising to think that in spite of the increasing demands that the world’s citizens make of the planet—we need more food, fuel, freshwater and clean air—no one has ever bothered to see just how much longer it can actually sustain these demands, nor withstand the environmental impacts of our behaviors.

Luckily, such a study is now underway. The group of scientists that were holed up at the Renaissance Hotel in Kuala Lumpur last week is trying to figure out how much more of our “business as usual” production and consumption the planet can withstand. Led by A.H. Zakri a Malaysian, who had been at the fore on international negotiations on biodiversity and biosafety governance (and UNU-IAS Director); Bob Watson, a leading expert on climate change; and Walter Reid, the visionary scientific director who is spearheading this initiative, this group of 800 scientists from around the world is conducting a planetary health exam.

Three years ago at the UN headquarters in New York , Secretary-General, Kofi Annan recognised the need for such a global assessment, and took the initial step to increasing our scientific understanding by officially launching the first ever comprehensive assessment of the global ecosystem. The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, or "MA", is a twenty one million-dollar endeavour that has been conducted over four years and financed by the World Bank’s Global Environment Facility, the UN Foundation, and countless other donors. Annan, has called the MA the "sort of international scientific and political cooperation needed to further the cause for sustainable development." While the MA is not an UN-led initiative, it has been fully endorsed by the organisation. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) manages the financial administration for the MA. Other components are being hosted by academic and non-governmental organizations such as the World Fish Centre in Penang , Malaysia , the UNEP World Conservation and Monitoring Centre in Cambridge , the Meridian Institute in Washington and the Institute of Economic Growth in New Delhi .

This is not, of course, the first scientific assessment to take place. However, most assessments to date have been conducted on an issue by issue basis in response to specific environmental problems. As a result, there are many different types of assessments on freshwater, climate, ozone and other environmental issues. The problem with this piecemeal approach is that the natural environment is not comprised of separate, disconnected components. It is obvious, even to the lay person, that soils, oceans, rivers, forests, plants, animals and microorganisms are all part of the same ecosystem. They are dependent on each other, and highly interactive. On a global scale, the same principle applies. Each of the different components of the earth's ecosystems is affected by human activity and as well as by the other components. So in order to assess fully the natural environment and its capacity for supporting human life, scientists must take better account of this connectivity and adopt a more integrated approach to environmental assessment. Within the scientific community, this cross-sectoral methodology is referred to as the eco-system approach.

The eco-system approach is relatively new; so far, scientists are just beginning to employ it. As a result, the scientific community still lacks a clear picture of the overall condition of the global ecosystem. What little we do know is that over-consumption and rapid population growth are causing a dramatic deterioration of the earth's ability to produce the services needed by humankind. These needs may range from food, water, shelter, and fuel to services such as water purification. The decline of ecosystem health affects the world’s populations indiscriminately. Whether we live in poor nations or in the rich ones, we are and will be affected by the declining health of the world’s ecosystems. The choices we make now will have diverse impacts—on people, plants, animals, and the functioning of our ecosystems more broadly—both now and into the future. Current adverse impacts will only increase ecosystem fragility, as well as our dependence on them in the future.

Once completed, the MA will represent the first authoritative analysis of the condition of the earth's grasslands, forests, rivers and lakes, farmlands, and oceans and their capacity to produce services for humankind. The assessment will input directly into major international environmental treaties such as those relating to climate change, biodiversity, conservation, desertification, and the protection and management of wetlands. The MA is also intended to assist national governments in their environmental planning.

The first step to improving the choices that we make is to improve our understanding, at a scientific level, of the impact that human existence is having on the earth's ecosystem. With this knowledge we can then develop more sustainable laws policies and more effective institutions to address our shared environmental challenges. We must enter the next century in better shape than when we began this one. The earth's eco-system can not possibly withstand another one hundred years of the types and levels of pressures that we currently place upon it. It would not, in fact, be possible to overstate the desperate need that exists to better understand the earth's limits and capacities, and for human beings to finally learn to live within them.

W. Bradnee Chambers is the Senior Programme Officer of the United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies and a Convening Lead Author in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Experts Warn Ecosystem Changes Will Continue to Worsen, Putting Global Development Goals At Risk

Wednesday, March 30, 2005 | London, UNITED KINGDOM

A landmark study released today reveals that approximately 60 percent of the ecosystem services that support life on Earth – such as fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water regulation, and the regulation of regional climate, natural hazards and pests – are being degraded or used unsustainably. Scientists warn that the harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years.

Any progress achieved in addressing the goals of poverty and hunger eradication, improved health, and environmental protection is unlikely to be sustained if most of the ecosystem services on which humanity relies continue to be degraded,” said the study,  Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) Synthesis Report, conducted by 1,300 experts from 95 countries. It specifically states that the ongoing degradation of ecosystem services is a road block to the Millennium Development Goals agreed to by the world leaders at the United Nations in 2000.

Although evidence remains incomplete, there is enough for the experts to warn that the ongoing degradation of 15 of the 24 ecosystem services examined is increasing the likelihood of potentially abrupt changes that will seriously affect human well-being. This includes the emergence of new diseases, sudden changes in water quality, creation of “dead zones” along the coasts, the collapse of fisheries, and shifts in regional climate.

The MA Synthesis Report highlights four main findings:

Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively in the last 50 years than in any other period. This was done largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel. More land was converted to agriculture since 1945 than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined. More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, first made in 1913, ever used on the planet has been used since 1985. Experts say that this resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in diversity of life on Earth, with some 10 to 30 percent of the mammal, bird and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction.
Ecosystem changes that have contributed substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development have been achieved at growing costs in the form of degradation of other services. Only four ecosystem services have been enhanced in the last 50 years: increases in crop, livestock and aquaculture production, and increased carbon sequestration for global climate regulation. Two services – capture fisheries and fresh water – are now well beyond levels that can sustain current, much less future, demands. Experts say that these problems will substantially diminish the benefits for future generations.

The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals. In all the four plausible futures explored by the scientists, they project progress in eliminating hunger, but at far slower rates than needed to halve number of people suffering from hunger by 2015. Experts warn that changes in ecosystems such as deforestation influence the abundance of human pathogens such as malaria and cholera, as well as the risk of emergence of new diseases. Malaria, for example, accounts for 11 percent of the disease burden in Africa and had it been eliminated 35 years ago, the continent’s gross domestic product would have increased by $100 billion. 

The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands can be met under some scenarios involving significant policy and institutional changes. However, these changes will be large and are not currently under way. The report mentions options that exist to conserve or enhance ecosystem services that reduce negative trade-offs or that will positively impact other services. Protection of natural forests, for example, not only conserves wildlife but also supplies fresh water and reduces carbon emissions. 
“The over-riding conclusion of this assessment is that it lies within the power of human societies to ease the strains we are putting on the nature services of the planet, while continuing to use them to bring better living standards to all,” said the MA board of directors in a statement, “Living beyond Our Means: Natural Assets and Human Well-being.” “Achieving this, however, will require radical changes in the way nature is treated at every level of decision-making and new ways of cooperation between government, business and civil society. The warning signs are there for all of us to see. The future now lies in our hands.” 

The MA Synthesis Report also reveals that it is the world’s poorest people who suffer most from ecosystem changes. The regions facing significant problems of ecosystem degradation – sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, some regions in Latin America, and parts of South and Southeast Asia – are also facing the greatest challenges in achieving the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the number of poor people is forecast to rise from 315 million in 1999 to 404 million by 2015.

“Only by understanding the environment and how it works, can we make the necessary decisions to protect it. Only by valuing all our precious natural and human resources can we hope to build a sustainable future,” said Kofi Annan, secretary general of the United Nations in a message launching the MA reports. ”The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is an unprecedented contribution to our global mission for development, sustainability and peace.”

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) Synthesis Report  is the first in a series of seven synthesis and summary reports and four technical volumes that assess the state of global ecosystems and their impact on human well-being. This report is being released together with a statement by the MA board of directors entitled “Living beyond Our Means: Natural Assets and Human Well-being.”

The four-year assessment was designed by a partnership of UN agencies, international scientific organizations, and development agencies, with guidance from the private sector and civil society groups. Major funding is provided by the Global Environment Facility, the United Nations Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, and The World Bank.  The MA Secretariat is coordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

The MA is recognized by governments as a mechanism to meet part of the assessment needs of four international environmental treaties – the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, and the Convention on Migratory Species. It is supported by 22 of the world’s leading scientific bodies, including The Royal Society of the U.K. and the Third World Academy of Sciences. 

The MA’s work is overseen by a 45-member board of directors, co-chaired by Dr. Robert Watson, chief scientist of The World Bank, and Dr. A. H. Zakri, director of the United Nations University’s Institute of  Advanced Studies. The Assessment Panel, which oversees the technical work of the MA, includes 13 of the world’s leading social and natural scientists. It is co-chaired by Angela Cropper of the Cropper Foundation, and Dr. Harold Mooney of Stanford University. Dr. Walter Reid is the director of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

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Report: Human Damage to Earth Worsening Fast

Wed Mar 30, 9:17 AM ET

By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent, 

OSLO (Reuters) - Humans are damaging the planet at an unprecedented rate and raising risks of abrupt collapses in nature that could spur disease, deforestation or "dead zones" in the seas, an international report said on Wednesday.

The study, by 1,360 experts in 95 nations, said a rising human population had polluted or over-exploited two thirds of the ecological systems on which life depends, ranging from clean air to fresh water, in the past 50 years.

"At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning," said the 45-member board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.

"Human activity is putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet's ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted," it said.

Ten to 30 percent of mammal, bird and amphibian species were already threatened with extinction, according to the assessment, the biggest review of the planet's life support systems.

"Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel," the report said.

"This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on earth," it added. More land was changed to cropland since 1945, for instance, than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined.

GETTING WORSE

"The harmful consequences of this degradation could grow significantly worse in the next 50 years," it said. The report was compiled by experts, including from U.N. agencies and international scientific and development organizations.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said the study "shows how human activities are causing environmental damage on a massive scale throughout the world, and how biodiversity -- the very basis for life on earth -- is declining at an alarming rate."

The report said there was evidence that strains on nature could trigger abrupt changes like the collapse of cod fisheries off Newfoundland in Canada in 1992 after years of over-fishing.

Future changes could bring sudden outbreaks of disease. Warming of the Great Lakes in Africa due to climate change, for instance, could create conditions for a spread of cholera.

And a build-up of nitrogen from fertilizers washed off farmland into seas could spur abrupt blooms of algae that choke fish or create oxygen-depleted "dead zones" along coasts.

It said deforestation often led to less rainfall. And at some point, lack of rain could suddenly undermine growing conditions for remaining forests in a region.

The report said that in 100 years, global warming widely blamed on burning of fossil fuels in cars, factories and power plants, might take over as the main source of damage. The report mainly looks at other, shorter-term risks.

And it estimated that many ecosystems were worth more if used in a way that maintains them for future generations.

A wetland in Canada was worth $6,000 a hectare (2.47 acres), as a habitat for animals and plants, a filter for pollution, a store for water and a site for human recreation, against $2,000 if converted to farmland, it said. A Thai mangrove was worth $1,000 a hectare against $200 as a shrimp farm.

"Ecosystems and the services they provide are financially significant and...to degrade and damage them is tantamount to economic suicide," said Klaus Toepfer, head of the U.N. Environment Program.

The study urged changes in consumption, better education, new technology and higher prices for exploiting ecosystems.

"Governments should recognize that natural services have costs," A.H. Zakri of the U.N. University and a co-chair of the report told Reuters. "Protection of natural services is unlikely to be a priority for those who see them as free and limitless."